How Much Does Random Chance Account for a Writer’s Success?
I read a lot posts about marketing and selling books. For the most part, they say the same thing. To succeed, a writer (indie or otherwise) needs to:
- Blog
- Have a website or “landing page” for his/her book
- Use social media (Facebook, Twitter, Google+, etc.)
- Develop a “platform”
- Build connections with a community of readers
- Develop an email list/newsletter
- Have an amazing book, a professional cover, and a catchy blurb
- Make smart use of sales tactics like price points and free Kindle days
- Never, never, never, never give up
I’ve been wondering, though, if one more thing shouldn’t be added to the list: To succeed, a writer needs to be really lucky.
I can hear the howls now: Luck has nothing to do with it! It’s all about talent and perseverance and building a community of readers…
True. It’s hard to imagine success without those things, but I still think a measure of luck has something to do with it, at least in some cases.
And let me add right away that I’m not blaming my shortcomings as a writer on my lack of luck. And I’m not bitching about other people being luckier than me. I place most of the blame for my shortcomings on the fact that I’m a novice marketer, trying to learn the ropes as I go after having spent the last thirty-plus years learning my craft and living with the illusion that I’d eventually land a deal with a publisher who’d do all that marketing for me.
For the most part, I’ve been trying to do all those things in the bullet points above, some better than others. Success hasn’t exactly been forthcoming, but it depends on how one measures success. To keep from failing at that last bullet point, I measure success in terms of just having books that are out there and having had some readers find them through my efforts (directly or indirectly) and be entertained by my storytelling. If I measured success in the hundreds of dollars or in averaging one sale per day in an average month, then the measurement would fall short. I’m not there yet. But I can live with it.
I’m just finishing a week of free promos for my books after having launched the second in my Ace Stubble series, Unfinished Business. I noticed that on the days when Take Back Tomorrow was free, there were a lot of downloads (68) through the German arm of Amazon. Out of curiosity, I did a Google search and found that a German free-book-promo site had picked up the listing for my book and featured it; so there are 68 English-speaking German readers with my book in their Kindles, and a handful of them are likely to read it.
Those are 68 (potential) readers I hooked up with strictly by chance. Yes, the people who say you make your own luck will argue that I put myself out there and thought positively and created the opportunity by making the book free in the first place. But so did several thousand other indie writers on the same day. The people who run that German site picked my book out of thousands and featured it without any other input from me. Maybe they liked the cover, or the selections from book reviews I included in my blog post about the free day. And maybe if I’d listed the book on a different day, the site administrators would have been in a different mood or had their eye caught by a different book. And so it goes.
On other free days, I’ve had other promo sites feature my books, resulting in thousands of free downloads. And on still other days those same books (with the same covers and blurbs and the same outreach on my part to the promo sites) have gone unnoticed, resulting in a couple hundred downloads instead.
It strikes me as rather random. As do other aspects of success.
I was reading another indie writer’s blog where he was analyzing the wild but temporary success he had on Amazon after his novel was featured in an Amazon-generated list of recommended books; his was the only indie book on the list, and he suddenly found himself with sales comparable to the pros his book was rubbing elbows with. Upon investigating, the writer discovered that his book had been included in the list because it looked so good, so professionally put together, that the Amazon editors had assumed this self-published book had come from a small press. While the author did a fantastic job of designing and marketing his book, the fact that it got noticed by these Amazon editors and recommended on a list of professionally designed books was, really, just a matter of luck–something the author was quick to acknowledge.
Why that book and not one of the other thousands of solidly designed indies, or even other professionally published books? Random chance maybe? The editors in a particular mood on a particular day and having some indefinable thing catch their eye that on another day would have slipped right past?
I don’t know the answer, but it does seem to me that random chance has something to do with the reason some writers shoulder ahead of others who are equally good, and oftentimes even better. And those better books never get noticed.
The same probably holds true in traditional publishing where one skilled writer gets picked up by an agent or editor on a given day while an equally skilled writer gets rejected–partly because the first one was in the right place at the right time.
Imagine the previously unpublished author of a teen vampire romance whose query comes up in an agent’s queue the same week that the first Twilight book shoots into the literary stratosphere. The agent snaps the book up and is pitching it to publishers in a heartbeat while the other queries in the queue–all by equally unknown writers, some with more talent and some with less than the author of the Twilight clone–get rejections because the agent can take on only so many new clients.
Surely there are books that deserve rejection, but there are others that, in a different week, would have outshone the book that got signed. Does being lucky guarantee this hypothetical author success? Not at all. But it gives that writer a hell of a better shot at it than the others who go back to the slush pile.
I don’t mean to sound defeatist or to say it’s all about chance. This isn’t sour grapes (I don’t have a bestseller because I never got lucky, etc.). No, talent and marketing and skill and savvy all help put the writer in a position where the odds are better. But it really does seem to me that, at least in some cases, luck is as much a factor as talent.
And in some cases, more.
No one seems to talk about it, though. Maybe because it’s something that can’t be taught–or sold–on a website.
Amazon books Kindle marketing Take Back Tomorrow Twilight Unfinished Business Writing
265 Responses
Interesting notion. I agree that luck has something to do with it. But like you said, in order to even enter into a situation that could bring potential “luck,” a lot of work has to be done beforehand. Congrats on all your German readers. That’s fantastic!
Thanks! We’ll see if I get any German reviews.
Richard,
Do you think that in the items that you listed to succeed in your blog, is one is the most important or did you just list this randomly?
I did list them kind of randomly, but also influenced by how frequently I see these things mentioned in other people’s blogs. I would argue that writing an amazing novel is probably the most important element as far as a writer being able to establish a fan base and some longevity. However, I’m sure we’re all aware of weak books that have huge followings for a whole variety of reasons.
Nobody knows more about the luck factor than Tom Clancy.
He approached a friend or neighbor who was an editor at a technical press and asked him to read his first novel, just to see if it was readable, without knowing that the press had decided to consider publishing its first novel in a century.
And the President of the United States just happened to get a copy of the book from a friend, and responded with his own endorsement.
Without those crucial breaks, where would the author of The Hunt for Red October be today?
Luck? Well, as the cliche goes, you make your own luck. At least to a degree.
Great story Jnana. I hadn’t heard that one before. Thanks for sharing.
You know, I read a blog article from a friend of mine the other day where she quoted a professor. The professor believed that the key to being lucy was nothing cosmological, but by having a positive outlook on life and making bad situations into good ones. Also thinking outside the box never hurts.
And hey, did you ever try creating a book trailer or doing a reading? I’ve done both for my upcoming collection of short stories, and they seem to be helping, if only a little.
Thanks for the input. I agree that having a positive outlook can certainly help, but there are some things where it’s maybe random chance rather than luck. I haven’t done a book trailer yet, but I have done a couple of readings. I should do more. Good luck with your collection.
Thanks, and good luck with your books.
By the way, your article gave me a couple of ideas for blog posts. Thanks.
Reblogged this on Penlateral and commented:
Hi, I agree that luck has a lot to do with it. Without naming anybody there are some best sellers that leave me scratching my head wondering if I missed the point. I honestly believe never giving up is the only solution. Even by random chance discoveries it seems (for most) the more you chace the dream the better your standings, well hopefully. But on the plus side you have 68 more potential fans than me. Keep slogging away.
Thanks. I will definitely keep slogging away. I also scratch my head at some people’s success and can’t help but think that their being in the right place at the right time as to account for large portion of their success.
Very cool words. Luck…that fickle mistress, that secret mixing of preparedness and opportunity that is so hard to concoct for oneself. Is luck itself a certain type of skill that through practice, dedication and self confidence, one can learn to create their own luck?
Maybe…but there’s still an element of randomness that can’t be controlled no matter how dedicated.
I cannot remember the author I heard interviewed, but he went on to huge success. He got so fed up with rejection that he put the contents of his instructions for his new washing machine into his text and a number of publishing houses rejected it without obviously reading it! However as you have pointed out it is chance on a day, so keep trying maybe? I wish you every success.
Thanks. I intend to keep trying, luck or not.
I talk about luck a lot, and am a big believer in the whole concept. Sometimes, I have to be PC and say “perception”, but the whole time, I really mean luck. Unfortunately, I have none.
I tend think of this type of thing more as random chance than luck. It makes it seem a little less mystical.
Reminds me a bit of some of the ideas in Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell. Talent surely counts, but it can’t beat being in the right place at the right time with the right people!
Not familiar with Gladwell, but thanks for mentioning him. Sometimes it seems like being in the right place at the right time is the ONLY thing that gets some people noticed. Talent, not so much.
I totally see your point, and I see that it applies to so many things, not just books and writing. I can even say that it applies to everything in life.
Then again, don’t you think bestsellers may be overrated? What do you care if your book sold 200 or 200 million copies? Writing is above all an art; a means of expression. If you are happy with your book, if it has truly said what’s in your heart and on your mind, that should be reward enough for you. Anyone else who finds it interesting or inspiring is a bonus.
Ah, well, may be I am just too idealistic and too romantic.
Anyway, good luck to you 🙂
Yes, as I said there are different definitions of success. There is also the idea of being fortunate, not quite the same as being lucky. I feel fortunate to have written a couple of books that a small number of people have been entertained by and responded well to. Not idealistic at all. Thanks for reading!
Enjoyed reading this article.
Regarding your last sentence of this entry, I want to disagree with you and say that a whole lot of books are written for this. Just check out Spiritual Marketing by Joe Vitale and you’ll get what I mean. Or The Power of the Subconcsious Mind by Joseph Murphy (I hope I didn’t get that wrong). And there’s plenty more of “Law of Attraction” books made for explaining what you’re talking about; that je ne sais quoi that makes someone lucky in anything.
Good point. I tend to shy away from those types of books, so that’s partly what informed that last sentence–along with the fact that most posts and sites on advice for writers tend not to go toward the spiritual. Thanks for reading!
How would you expect those books of “advice for writers” to write about it in the context of ‘luck’? Do you think that they should mention it once saying that luck plays a role in the matter but that they have no control over it? I’m curious what you think.
To me, this line by Thomas Jefferson puts Luck in the right place for writers:
“I find that the harder I work, the more luck I seem to have.”
Gluckwunsche! You’re right. Often, book marketing is sold much like the “How to get rich in real estate” videos — it’s an industry in and of itself. Want to make money writing a book? Write a book on how to make money writing a book. It may sound corny, but ENJOY writing that book, and write it because you HAVE to, and not because you see it as an income source. And I do agree wholeheartedly that LUCK is a factor. We make decisions based on — we hope — good judgement, and even then luck plays a role: buying a stock, picking a mate, ordering a daily special, or writing a book. You’re going to do fine, and I think I’ll pick up/download one of your books.
All great points. Thanks. And if you do pick up one of my books, I suppose I’ll be able to thank whatever good fortune got me freshly pressed today.
The stars are aligned. Good luck!
As with many other things in life, luck is only part of success, you still have to work hard for it. My dad says: “When I work 24 hours a day for 7 days a week without a break, I start getting lucky” (he says it in Russian, his mother tongue, so the quote has probably suffered in my translation;). But you give good examples which make me question my viewpoint.
I don’t mean to make it seem like luck is what it’s ALL about–just that it seems to account for success in some ways where nothing else could have done the trick. I think if we work hard, we’ll certainly have more opportunities to get lucky.
I have to admit that I’m a believer of random chance – good and bad.
But good article (no bad).
Thanks!
I’m a freelance cartoonist, and have been told most of those points you list at the beginning of this post.
Last year I started a blog. Last week I started a twitter account. I really can’t see how these will bring work but I’m willing to try it.
The 3 major contracts I’ve had were from “being in the right place at the right time” – – Luck !!
If the product is competitive, which I believe mine is, then it’s all down to pure luck, which can be improved with some major marketing.
http://cartoonmick.wordpress.com/about/
Cheers
Mick
Good points, Mick. I’ve heard (probably an urban myth, but whatever) that most people get jobs by hearing about an opening or knowing someone who’s looking to hire rather than through agencies, classified ads, etc. In lots of ways, being in the right place at the right time seems to do the trick. If only we could master that as a skill! Good luck with your marketing efforts.
I believe for cartoonists “luck” comes in the form if ‘who falls in love with your work’. I’m a freelance cartoonist myself and I started a blog and created a twitter account this year and I’m happy to say its gotten me one gig already. I believe that having a small cult following is way better than having a thousand random viewers. Back to the topic, sure you need luck, everybody needs luck. Has anything ever been achieved without some luck along the way?
Good question. Luck probably does have something to do with just about every aspect of success when we consider how much competition there is in just about any field. I also agree with you about the value of a small group of devoted fans rather than a large group of people who notice you for the moment and then move on to the next flavor of the month.
I agree. I began writing again over the two years after a long time away from it. What I remember about the last time that I gave up (apart from the fact that I have been raising autistic children for 26 years), was that I was amazed at all of the books written to show writers how to succeed. Now, the business of selling the formula of success to writers has exploded on the internet. Every where I turn there is a blog about writing the next best seller, another book, another writers conference. The leaders of my writing group are all about the platform, trying to get more readers, etc. I just feel overwhelmed by it. I finally decided that it is enough for me to continue to write for my small blog regarding autism and another blog connected to this profile. It is enough for now.
As to luck, it may have been just a coincidence that I started writing about autism at the time that Chicken Soup for the Soul was publishing an volume on autism on World Autism Awareness Day. And that another friend who had a story published in Chicken Soup for the Soul, just happened to know about this upcoming edition, and that I had a couple of pieces on my little known blog already written and could submit them quickly. One of my stories is in this book under a pen name. There was quite a bit of providence in the situation, but also some work already done and ready.
Great example! Congratulations, and best of luck with blogging and writing. Don’t give up!
As an operating room nurse, I can tell you that I’ve heard from surgeons many times, sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. I share their sentiment. Good luck to you!
Thanks, Kim. I’m finding more and more that the “luck” thing applies to far more than writing.
[…] Well, that depends on who you ask: my friend and fellow author Pat Bertram (you might remember her as the person who did that wonderful interview a while back) mused in her article on the nature of luck and quoted a professor who believed that luck was the result of a consistently positive outlook on life (for the article look here: http://ptbertram.wordpress.com/2013/03/13/can-you-change-your-luck/). And today, I read another author by the name of Richard Levesque, who concluded that no matter how much work you do on your own to advertise your book, luck still plays a big part in your success (for his post read here: http://www.richardlevesqueauthor.com/2013/04/01/how-much-does-random-chance-account-for-a-writ…). […]
For any job, luck is a very important element to succeed. When economic is bad, you even have to be lucky enough to find a job. I did not think in this way until last year when I began to worry about my job hunting. I saw people with great abilities could not get a job after some interviews. (For those who are not great, they even have a hard time to get interviews.) However, one friend, who is not the best, got a job. Luck, right? I agree 50% is due to luck. Another main reason is that he tried a lot. Suppose one can succeed with a chance of 1/10, he will succeed at the first time if he is very lucky; however, he will succeed eventually if he is very unlucky but he try 10 times. So if one is very lucky, go ahead, try and win. If you are not the lucky person, try harder (of course polish yourself during the process) and eventually you will have what you want. I am still hunting for a job. I hope luck will come to me soon partly because I am trying very hard 🙂
Thanks for reading. It seems odd to say “best of luck” in your job search, but I do hope you land something soon.
I can see where a little luck brings a successful book to a huge hit. While talent and marketing has a lot to do with it, I also think that the exact time a book hits the market holds a lot of power because word of mouth and trends has power.
Absolutely.
Damn luck, the one thing you cannot control but can change you life overnight. Luck usually end up in a chance meeting for me which provides an invaluable networking opportunity. Great post.
Thanks for reading!
I do think some people are luckier than others and it does make a big difference sometimes as the slightest event can trigger a windfall of good fortune.
It does seem that way, but hard work can make a difference. I don’t want to suggest that it’s all about luck.
It’s such a mix of luck and hard work- and who you know. This was a great discussion on the process. Thanks for sharing!
(Here from the A to Z Challenge
Thanks! I appreciate your reading it.
Random Chance=Luck=God Smiled
Certainly one way of looking at it. Thanks!
WOW if a writer has to do all those things….they might as well hire themselves out as a marketing specialist on the side!
Yes, I had no idea what I was getting into. It’s been quite an education.
Interesting post
Thank you.
Interesting, but is luck real? I think luck is so unempowering. Isn’t it possible there is another force at play? Luck is random, I don’t think your book being picked up by that German company was random, I think it was time, it was your fate.
Okay, but isn’t the idea of fate equally unempowering, maybe even more so?
True. But luck is random where fate feels purposeful, driven by a force of what is meant to be.
If I knew how to say “good luck” in German I would. 🙂 I enjoyed your insight, and congrats on being freshly pressed! Much luck to you and your continuing journey!
Thanks! I really appreciate it.
Luck, coincidence, chance, all of these things play a role. So do hard work, persistence and talent. Keep writing!
Will do. Continuing to write is the only thing I have control over. Luck, coincidence and chance–not so much!
You are further ahead of the game than I am, and I admire your honesty so much so that it has required me to rekindle the passion once more in the marketing phase. Thank you for such thoughtful insight and honest vulnerability in your journey. 🙂
Thank you! Marketing is a bear, but it’s a challenge worth face. In light of this discussion, I feel weird saying “best of luck” to you, but I think you know what I mean.
I’m a big believer in pro-active luck…otherwise known as spirituality, as one of the comments noted above. When you are engaged in actively putting good out into the cosmos, good comes back to you.
Good luck!
And congrats on being FP — was that luck? : -)
Thanks. And, yes, I think there is some ironic luck in having this post be the one that got freshly pressed.
A former writing instructor/CBC editor/published book author by major publishing houses, who I also had the privilege of being in a writer’s group for two years, bless his “realist” heart and soul, said the world is full of politics in writing, too. He also said that timing is everything. The luck part was explained as being similar to real estate, timing is everything. Staying with it is all we can do. Perseverance is key. Speaking of Keys, Ralph Keyes wrote a great book I adore: “The Courage to Write.” To me, it is not about one form of publishing over another, but doing all we can to self promote as any good artist/musician/entertainer must do until that lucky break when the timing was perfect. My attitude is if I never get that break of timing in this life, I would be happy to look down from the heavens as someone opens a trunk of my bletherings and says, “wasn’t she brilliant.” Anything else is a true bonus! Write on, everyone, stay real, stay true and stay you. This was a good piece, especially for newbie writers who don’t understand that so much is expected of us as in Loranne Brown’s agent asking if she had been published. She hadn’t until her book became a bestseller in Canada one summer but that was AFTER she did as her agent instructed and won a writing contest. There is much to be gleaned from experiences of others. Sorry I blogged on your blog. Just learning, learning, learning as I grow 🙂
No apologies necessary! Thanks for the input. I don’t plan on stopping, luck or no luck, and I hope other new and indie writers find a positive message in this.
Me too! It’s called stay strong, stay you and Write On… 🙂 That’s the biggest and best writing experience lesson I’ve learned so far…. Learn the rules, yes. It’s always good to know the rules of any pursuit and in our technology overloaded world where so much is expected of a writer/artist…without knowing what the rules are, we can’t navigate strongly.But breaking them all your own way in your own voice… that’s my rule, lol… off to learn some more now. Thanks for replying 🙂
You have to have the right product at the right time of course. Not every piece of writing is of commercial value, or considered to be of commercial value, which is not quite the same thing, even though the thoughts expressed may be profound. Just the same, I do believe you are right regarding luck, chance, random fluctuations in the cosmos, call it what you will. It was chance that brought me here in the first place, as I clicked on your blog at random – or did I?
Good question. How random was the decision by someone out there to freshly press this post?
Following the steps you listed is actually what brought me to WordPress, but I definitely agree. I was brought up while my mother was beginning two small businesses, and learning the ropes in marketing for her has taught me that luck is a factor in all of it. There are hundreds/thousands/millions of people doing the exact same thing as you. Even if you follow your prescribed list, you might not get the desired effect if there isn’t a little bit of luck turning things in your favor.
Great job covering this subject!
Thank you. It’s frustrating for many people that good quality work goes unnoticed because something like luck didn’t go the writer’s way. That’s partially why we need to re-define success and be pleased with the little things that go well along the way.
I recently checked out Amanda Palmer (because I’m a fan of Neil Gaiman) and I was appalled that people are disappointed when a band sells 25,000 records. 25,000? That is such a large number of people interested enough in your work that they will actually BUY it!
Personally, I’m ecstatic when I get one person saying they enjoy my writing/drawing. Success for me is every little thing a lot the way and I celebrate everything! While it doesn’t have to be that way for everyone, I do think we all could employ a little more appreciation of our own achievements and not be disheartened when we don’t reach the high expectations.
Thank you for your reply.
I suppose if I was in a position where I was hoping to make back an advance or make my publisher feel I was worth the money spent on advertising, I might have a different definition of success. As a small-timer, though, I’m with you–every time I learn that a reader has discovered and been entertained by something I’ve written, I feel like a success.
Very good post. I think people are reluctant to say that coincidence or luck has anything to do with it, because they’re afraid they’ll either come across as bitter or it will seem as if they’re dismissing the hard work that every writer puts in.
I checked out your work, and it looks very interesting. I hope you catch a big break!
Thanks. I really appreciate it. I was hoping people wouldn’t take my blog as a form of whining, and it looks like they haven’t.
The “luck” part of success is that others want what you have to offer; you can’t force anyone to read your work.
When you create something you know what they want, the luck becomes that they choose to purchase it over another option. You can offer incentives, or entice them; but, ultimately, the luck is if they’ll buy yours.
Good points. Thanks for reading. I read a while back that the biggest challenge for fiction writers is that no one HAS to read fiction. Non-fiction people need for information, assistance, health, etc. I have a textbook that sells reasonable well, far better than my novels. But those readers have been told they must buy the book. If only the same could be said for fiction…
Reblogged this on asmatrch.
Thanks!
It’s not a cop out to acknowledge that luck plays a HUGE part in all creative success, and failure. At the end of the day it’s all just whims and a bunch of people’s subjective opinions – even top publishers and agents admit this. So, for what it’s worth….good luck with the writing! I’m putting up my first WordPress book and expect nothing but blood, sweat and…well, you get the drift. Matt.
Thanks, Matt. Best of luck with your book.
Thanks. I’ll need it! Lots of pruning to be done. Best of luck for your writing too and congrats on what you’ve achieved so far. I look forward to following your blog. if you have any comments, even negative, please do go ahead. I’m a novice and need help!
one seems like getting trapped in the ‘vicissitudes of life’ – to wait for the blessing of Fortuna
another tension is between the subject matter and market demands: are you writing what the market wants to read (and are market demands really good signals for what is ‘good’ subject matter?)
anyway, cheers
Good question. I made the decision a while back to write the kinds of books I would enjoy reading. If that puts me on the fringes of the marketplace, so be it. I’ll at least be able to live with myself regardless of what happens.
This article personifies ‘thinking outside the box’ in itself, or is a long but extremely valid Zen statement! It really opened up a lot of new frontiers, the first being ‘What is luck’ exactly. And that is a question worth thinking about. How does the poker player view luck? What is his/her marketing strategy – yes, the poker face. How does a mountain climber view luck, or a solo yachtsman/woman? There may be standard formulas out there that need to be snatched and used. Who knows…so very well-written, well done.
Thank you. I appreciate the feedback. You’re right that there’s probably a lot more to studying luck than I’ve bothered to delve into.
Am a firm believer of luck but that doesn’t mean that I don’ believe in hard work or quality. Luck provides that one degree extra to someone with the same or sometimes even lesser-abled person.
Interesting read.
Thanks for reading. I appreciate your input. All of these comments are showing me there’s a lot more to think about on this subject.
Great post. I constantly wonder about the balance between luck and talent and if my words will ever get noticed. Maybe no one talks about it because it’s too depressing to think one might never be recognised for pure talent! I think nowadays a writer has to rely a great deal on selling themselves, not just their words, through online platforms.
Yes, it can be discouraging, but then there’s so much that can be discouraging in this game. I think the key is to keep trying. The ones who give up will never have a chance to have a lucky strike.
You inspire me more to write and pursue my dreams. I want to be a writer. I am new in blogging and finally decided to pursue this hobby. Thanks a lot! keep inspiring others. You really did a great help in encouraging me.
Thanks for writing! I’m glad my post was able to help. Best of luck!
yes, thanks a lot sir!
Firstly, congratulations on being ‘Freshly pressed’! Definitely an ambition of mine. Using a proven analytical tool, isolate the factor you wish to quantify and observe. Publish a book and do nothing else – luck would be the hope of success. Same odds as winning the lottery I would suggest. Of course luck plays an important part in everything thing we do in life but it cannot be relied on so the hard work is inevitable. Do the hard work and accept luck as a bonus. I like the quote ‘the harder I work the luckier I become’. However, when a prospective Marshall of the French army was suggested to Napoleon with glowing recommendations Napoleon waved them aside ‘Yes! Yes! He is good but is he lucky?’
When I first tried e-publishing over 20 years ago I sold one copy. No one would read a book on a computer at that time. After a long break I tried it again his year. Now I am in competition with 400, 000 titles in the same price bracket on Amazon alone! Luck will certainly be a factor regardless of quality.
I come from a long line of unlucky people.
One ancestor was killed at the Battle of the Little Big Horn, he wasn’t actually in the battle but camping in the next field and went across to complain about the noise! During WW2 my father was torpedoed so many times they used to shoot an albatross for luck every time he went to sea!
Keep up the hard work, write more books. The luck will come!
Ned
Thanks, Ned. You sound like a natural story-teller. Best of luck with your book.
You said what all of us are thinking, but are too scared to admit. :p
I’ve long thought that luck has a lot to do with it, especially given how many indie authors are around now. I often wonder whether the market will get, or has gotten, saturated by authors….
Great post, and I’m glad I stumbled across your blog 🙂
Thank you for writing. Yes, it’s an uncomfortable subject, and I was tired of letting it bug me, so I decided to write about it. Looks like it touched a nerve for a lot of people.
I agree completely. Nice to see someone share the honesty of the situation. I’m wishing you tons of success.
Thank you! I really appreciate the support.
We all need it. Writing is definitely not the easiest career choice!
I’ve been making my living as a journalist/writer for 30 years, (two NF books commercially published) and know — from seeing it in other writers and living it — that luck is very much in play when some books, especially, take off like a rocket. You can’t control, no matter how much you market or blog, how people will feel about your work or what they will say about it — that is sheer luck if they like it and not great luck if they hate it. And whatever they say is likely to affect the sales of that book, and the book after that (which no publisher will accept if your prior book did not sell well enough.)
I recently got the highest-paid assignment of the year when I cold-pitched an editor who then gave me a different story to do. I consider myself lucky to have had that happen — but I’ve also spent 30 years building my name and skills to a degree that an editor is comfortable doing so. I think writers who fail to acknowledge luck as part of their success are less than honest, with themselves and with others.
If you have acquired the requisite social capital, (and many do not), you will get the blurbs/agent/publisher/assignments. It’s getting the clout and connections to match your skills (if you can) that may boost your chances of becoming lucky.
Very insightful. I do think there has to be some quality for luck to match up with readers’ expectations. As you suggest, perseverance has a lot to do with success, probably more than luck.
I think luck has a lot to do with it, but since we can’t control that part of things, we need to concentrate on what we can control. Sucks to be good but unlucky though.
Indeed!
[…] one of today’s Freshly Pressed blog posts was called ‘How Much Does Random Chance Account for a Writer’s Success?’ which I found […]
I’m glad you just came right out and said this! I’ve been thinking this for quite a while even with my blog posts. It really seems like there’s no reason why some things are popular and others aren’t. I could post something excellent one day and no one will comment and the next day post something that’s not as good and everyone likes it. It seems like chance to me. And I have always felt that I’m not lucky at all. Sigh.
Oh and yes, there are so many best sellers out there that are terrible! The writing isn’t any good and there are others who are excellent but don’t get noticed. The universe is a fickle mistress. I think it could be about who you know or like you said, those chance encounters that get you noticed. I keep wondering myself, will this happen for me? Will someone important happen to read my book and therefore make it popular? I’m doing all the right stuff, but like you, sales are not where I’d like them to be. I think being positive does help as weird as that seems. And I’m so negative. I have to catch myself and try to stop being negative, but if you are truly a negative person deep down, I feel like it’s always there and you will have no luck! I’ve seen this happen everywhere, jobs, life in general. Some people honestly seem to be lucky and things go their way, others not as much. Now fortunate, that is another thing and yes, I am fortunate. Definitely. Thanks for the post!
Thanks for the comments, and for reading. It looks like there are a lot of people who feel the same way. As I’ve said in a few other comments here, I think the person struggling and hoping to get noticed needs to re-define success or be swallowed up by depression and frustration. Focusing on being fortunate, as you’ve pointed out, is probably far healthier than longing for luck.
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